USF of computer-based scenario analysis for assessment and decision making: Examination of a potential food crisis in South Asia

A multilevel hierarchical computer simulation model focusing on world food problems has been developed as an integral component of the Mesarovic-Pestel World Modeling Project. The model incorporates submodels of economic phenomena, demographic phenomena, land use and food production which have been developed by scholars representing several disciplines and universities. In this paper results from a problem oriented, policy oriented analysis of potential food shortages in South Asia are presented.