Trajectory modeling for automated en route air traffic control (AERA)

AERA (Automated En Route Air traffic control) is a continuing Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) program to increase system capacity, safety, and the granting of user-preferred trajectories (e.g., direct routes) to airspace users. A cornerstone of AERA is its trajectory modeler: the model predictions may be displayed graphically to the controller on the AERA Future Situation Display, and are used to provide strategic (up to 20 min.) detection of aircraft-to-aircraft conflicts. This paper provides an overview of the AERA Trajectory Modeler, as currently envisaged for field implementation in the late 1990s. It is divided into 4 sections, dealing (in turn) with 1) initial trajectory construction, 2) the maintenance of the trajectory as the flight progresses, 3) sources of modeling error, and 4) the application to air traffic control