Grain reserve sizing: A multiobjective and probabilistic analysis

How large should a world grain reserve be in order to stabilize grain supplies through good or lean years of production? The paper discusses how to conceive of the institutions through which grain is produced and used; how to size a grain reserve with respect to multiple objectives; and how to assure reliable performance even during a series of sequential production shortfalls. An analytical technique is described, based upon tools from synthetic hydrology, order statistics, and multiobjective programming. Initial numerical results for sizing a world grain reserve are presented.