Build risk probability distribution maps based on DPAW Copula during wake encountering

Flight risk probabilities during wake encountering were studied. First, two-dimensional extreme flight parameters required for assessing the risk are extracted based on Monte Carlo method. Second, the DPAW (Double Parameters & Adaptive Weights) Copula is proposed for modeling the distributions of two-dimensional extreme parameters. The results of fitting test show DPAW Copula has the highest accuracy in all Copulas. Finally the 2D and 3D distribution maps of visual flight risk probabilities are constructed. The topology characteristics of the flight risk probability distributions are analyzed. The maximum flight risk probability during close wake encountering is about 13.5%. The work is an effective complement to assessment theory and methods of aircraft system safety. It also has some reference values for research directions such as wake navigation control, risk aversion, airport safety interval improvement, visualization of environmental risks.