Research by the Forecasting Method of Reconstructed First before modeling

This research has proved that 110-alarm events have predictability;the applicability of forecast models that can be applied to government emergency management departments and is applied for forecast of public security organ in actual command and supports assistant-decision. This innovative method uses high-order AR to synthesize time series of 110-alarm forecasting result to the original signal forecasting result and to be proved through experiments. This innovative modeling and forecasting process is called “Forecasting Method of Reconstructed First before Modeling”.