Formal Strategic Analysis of the Conflict over Syria

Syria´s Strategic location and presence of several parties with quite opposite interests have made the ongoing conflict over Syria a potential risk for sparking another World War. The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution is used to model and analyze the current conflict in Syria. This analysis considers five DMs containing Western Powers, Russia-China, Iran, Syrian regime, and internal oppositions with totally fourteen options. The decision support system GMCR II employs various solution concepts for stability definition to determine the most likely outcomes among all feasible states. It is concluded that the status quo is not stable and will not last for long run. To deter escalation of this conflict and reaching to more peaceful conditions, it is recommended that Russia-China and Iran cooperate with Western Powers. Coalition analysis also indicates that as long as Iran and Russia supports Syrian regime with armory, Syria escalates the war against internal oppositions.