Analysis on the paths to China´s goal of carbon intensity by 2020

Based on the IPAT identity and using the economic, social and statistical data, this article selects STIRPAT model to create China ´s driving/actors model of carbon emission. With the method of scenario analysis through the model, we predict under the base scenario, the energy saving scenario, the economic structure optimization scenario, the economic structure optimization scenario and the multiple policies scenario and obtain the predicted values of carbon emission and carbon intensity by 2020 under the five scenarios. The values show that, compared with the base scenario, the policies under the four other scenarios can all extend the decline of the carbon intensity by 2020. But no matter which policy is implemented alone cannot achieve the goal of cutting carbon intensity by 40% to 45% by 2020, only the simultaneous implementation of three policies combined can achieve this goal. To this end, China must develop and implement new energy conservation policy, economic and energy structure optimization policy, new energy and renewable energy policy.