Power system planning under uncertainty conditions. criteria for transmission network flexibility evaluation

In a free-market scenario, power system planning has to deal with a significant degree of uncertainty about time and location of generating assets expansion. A methodology for the evaluation of the attitude of the transmission system to keep up a desired standard of reliability under such uncertainty (that is, flexibility) is presented. The method, relying on the Monte Carlo simulation approach, is applied to check the effectiveness of a flexibility index, based on structural as well as operational network parameters. The results of tests carried out on simple networks and on IEEE RTS are reported showing the encouraging agreement between the probabilistic simulations and the proposed index.