Diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in Europe and Japan

This work focuses on common diffusion characteristics in the evolution of national mobile telecommunications markets. The study examines 1G, 2G and 2.5G technologies that coexisted during the period 1991-2003 but exhibited different market penetration rates. In almost all cases studied, it is found that the technology adopters initially increase following a power-law, approximately quadratic or cubic. Furthermore, when the whole life-cycle of the telecommunication service is taken into account, the corresponding sigmoid growth curve is consistent with Weibull diffusion dynamics. Such universal diffusion characteristics appear in nations with diverse cultural, political and economic environment, and seem independent of the details of collective behavior or the interactions among technology adopters. It is argued that they may, instead, be associated with fundamental aspects of human decision dynamics and the individual´s memory of external stimuli. In this direction, recent advances in the research of human dynamics suggest new interpretations of technology diffusion statistics in today´s globalized social environment.