Title :
Decision making theory with imprecise probabilities
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Comput.-Aided Control Syst., Azerbaijan State Oil Acad., Baku, Azerbaijan
Abstract :
Summary form only given. There is an extensive literature on decision-making under uncertainty. Unfortunately, up to day there are no valid decision principles. The widely used principle of maximization of expected utility has serious shortcomings. The first approach in classical theory of choice was formulated axiomatically in the expected utility theory of von Neumann and Morgenstern and is the predominant economic theory for decision making under uncertainty. In another, more advanced approach of Savage subjective expected utility it is assumed that peoples assess the state of the economy and the effects of their behavior in a forward-looking way by processing available information according to standard statistical principles. We present a characterization theorem on existence of a fuzzy utility function representing weak order relation defined over the set of fuzzy alternatives. We also develop an effective decision theory with imprecise probabilities when the environment of fuzzy events, fuzzy states, fuzzy relations, and fuzzy constraints are characterized by imprecise probabilities.
Keywords :
decision making; fuzzy set theory; optimisation; probability; statistical analysis; utility theory; decision making theory; decision principles; decision theory; economic theory; expected utility theory; fuzzy alternatives; fuzzy constraints; fuzzy events; fuzzy relations; fuzzy states; fuzzy utility function; imprecise probability; maximization; standard statistical principles; weak order relation; Control systems; Decision making; Economics; Fuzzy logic; Fuzzy sets; Humans; Natural languages; Petroleum; Uncertainty; Utility theory;
Conference_Titel :
Soft Computing, Computing with Words and Perceptions in System Analysis, Decision and Control, 2009. ICSCCW 2009. Fifth International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Famagusta
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-3429-9
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-3428-2
DOI :
10.1109/ICSCCW.2009.5379425