Key success factors realizing the European offshore wind success story

A variety of offshore wind installation forecasts exist. While there are variances depending on macro model assumptions and insights on estimated grid connection dates, even conservative forecasts conclude on double digit growth rates for offshore wind capacity additions through ´15 and beyond. While a project by project analysis is feasible for near term forecasts, a longer term forecast needs to be complemented based on macro modelling. Resulting from the analyses, UK and Germany remain the countries with the largest portion of new installations in the near future. It is expected that up to 80% of all new capacity additions in Europe will take place in these countries through ´15. Many projects are already contracted while some remain open. Framework agreements with utilities ensure to capture additional opportunities in this uprising segment. On the other hand one must look at the critical factors that determine whether future installation forecasts are realistic. This paper aims to analyse the key success factors reviewing some of the critical domains for offshore wind. The following possible offshore wind bottlenecks have been identified: turbine manufacturing capacity, offshore wind financing, turbine and foundation installation vessels availability, foundations manufacturing capacity as well as cable laying vessels availability. Last but not least, shifts in cost breakdowns of total offshore projects costs over the coming years are analysed. The authors conclude on an overall outlook for the industry highlighting potential bottlenecks and outlining how to overcome them with a proactive way forward.