Prognostic Model for the Patients with Severe Liver Disease

To analyze prognostic factors of patients with severe liver disease and develop a prognostic model for them which is fitful to the characteristics of our country. From March 2002 to June 2007, the 527 patients with severe liver disease were evaluated, the follow-up information were collected include the survival state (death/survival). The survival model was established by using COX proportional hazard model. New 400 cases were used to test and evaluate the decision capability of the model. Nine prognostic factors were extracted by using COX, the prognostic index (PI) was calculated. By statistics analyze to compare the ROC area (AUC) of this system model with CTP and MELD, this system meld is better than CTP and MELD. The developed model is fitful to the characteristics of our country where there are a lot of virus hepatitis patients, so the model is valuable in prognostic evaluation of severe liver patients and very useful to guide clinicians in selecting treatment methods in China.