Title :
Forecast of residential energy consumption market based on grey Markov chain
Author :
Zhou, Hui ; Wang, Wei ; Niu, WenJie ; Xie, Xingrong
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Electr. Eng., Beijing jiaotong Univ., Beijing
Abstract :
In the circumstance of electricity market, it is very necessary for an electric utility to be clear about market distribution of residential energy consumption in future. with the data from Qinhuangdao electricity market investigation, Markov model with grey transfer probability matrix have been constructed on residential energy consumption items such as heating, cooking, cooling etc., we could do market distribution forecast in those energy consumption items in next term as well in an arbitrary term in future, which tells us in which subdivision market the electricity company has advantage or not, and it is valuable reference to be realize the prospect of electricity as well others category energy in every subdivision market in order to make corresponding sales management strategy.
Keywords :
Markov processes; matrix algebra; power consumption; power markets; power system economics; probability; sales management; Qinhuangdao electricity market; grey Markov chain; grey transfer probability matrix; market forecasting; residential energy consumption; sales management strategy; Cooling; Economic forecasting; Electricity supply industry; Energy consumption; Heat transfer; Load forecasting; Marketing and sales; Power industry; Predictive models; Resistance heating; Grey transfer probability matrix; Markov chain; energy competition; market distribution prediction; market share;
Conference_Titel :
Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 2008. SMC 2008. IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Singapore
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2383-5
Electronic_ISBN :
1062-922X
DOI :
10.1109/ICSMC.2008.4811541