Forecasting Asia Pacific Mobile Market Trends Using Regression Analysis

This paper forecasts Asia Pacific mobile market trends by observing growth trends of GSM and UMTS user numbers. Regression analysis is selected as the forecasting tool. It is predicted that both of the GSM and UMTS markets in Asia Pacific will keep experiencing an exponential growth. However, the growth rate for GSM will be relatively stable while the one for UMTS will gradually decrease. The share of Asia Pacific GSM market will be relatively steady while the share of Asia Pacific UMTS market will slowly go down in the next couple of years. In the near future, GSM will still occupy the largest market share in the mobile world. In Asia Pacific, the coming of the 3G era will be later than the rest of the world. It is expected that the GSM subscriber number will reach to about 1.5 billion in Asia Pacific by the end of 2008.