Title :
Conditional Prediction Intervals for Linear Regression
Author :
McCullagh, Peter ; Vovk, Vladimir ; Nouretdinov, Ilia ; Devetyarov, Dmitry ; Gammerman, Alex
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Stat., Univ. of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
Abstract :
We construct prediction intervals for the linear regression model with IID errors with a known distribution, not necessarily Gaussian. The coverage probability of our prediction intervals is equal to the nominal confidence level not only unconditionally but also conditionally given a natural sigma-algebra of invariant events. This implies, in particular, the perfect calibration of our prediction intervals in the on-line mode of prediction.
Keywords :
regression analysis; IID errors; conditional prediction intervals; invariant events; linear regression; natural sigma-algebra; perfect calibration; Application software; Distributed computing; Error analysis; Linear regression; Machine learning; Predictive models; Probability; State estimation; Statistics; Testing; Markov chain Monte Carlo; conditional inference; linear regression; prediction intervals;
Conference_Titel :
Machine Learning and Applications, 2009. ICMLA '09. International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Miami Beach, FL
Print_ISBN :
978-0-7695-3926-3
DOI :
10.1109/ICMLA.2009.115