Evaluating Hurricane Intensity Prediction Techniques in Real Time

While the accuracy of hurricane track prediction has been improving, predicting intensity, the maximum sustained wind speed, is still a very difficult challenge. This is problematic because the destructive power of a hurricane is directly related to its intensity. In this paper, we present Prediction Intensity Interval model for Hurricanes (PIIH) which combines sophisticated data mining techniques to create an online real time model for accurate intensity predictions and we present a web-based framework to dynamically compare PIIH to operational models used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The created dynamic website tracks, compares, and provides visualization to facilitate immediate comparisons of prediction techniques. This paper is a work in progress paper reporting on both, new features of the PIIH model and online visualization of the accuracy of that model as compared to other techniques.