Wavelet autoregressive forecasting of climatic parameters for photovoltaic systems

Author

Ben Salah, Chokri ; Ben Mabrouk, Anouar ; Ouali, Mohamed

Author_Institution

Dept. of Electr. Eng., Nat. Sch. of Eng. of Sfax, Sfax, Tunisia

fYear

2011

fDate

22-25 March 2011

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

6

Abstract

In this paper wavelet decomposition is combined with autoregressive models to analyze and predict climate time series such as solar radiation and photovoltaic cell temperature. The method is tested on climate parameters for analysis, and solar radiation and cell temperature for prediction. The work effectiveness is evaluated by the prediction of the electric energy produced by a 100 Wp photovoltaic panel. Finally, the performance of predictor is measured by standardized error.

Keywords

autoregressive processes; forecasting theory; matrix decomposition; photovoltaic cells; photovoltaic power systems; sunlight; time series; wavelet transforms; weather forecasting; climate time series; climatic parameter; electric energy production; photovoltaic cell temperature; photovoltaic panel; photovoltaic system; solar radiation; wavelet autoregressive forecasting; wavelet decomposition; Mathematical model; Photovoltaic systems; Predictive models; Solar radiation; Temperature measurement; Time series analysis; Wavelet analysis; Photovoltaics; Prediction; Solar Radiation and Cell Temperature; Time series; Wavelets;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Systems, Signals and Devices (SSD), 2011 8th International Multi-Conference on

Conference_Location

Sousse

Print_ISBN

978-1-4577-0413-0

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/SSD.2011.5767362

Filename

5767362