Uncertainty Analysis of Humidity and Precipitation Changes using Data from Global Climatic Models with a Case Study

The process of assessing vulnerability in agriculture, water resources, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and coastal zone management due to climate change requires construction of predicted vision of climate scenarios under physically reasonable assumptions of greenhouse gas levels. In arid and hot climatic conditions, even minor climatic changes will have significant impact on survival of plant species, wild animals, and other desert ecosystems as well as on human health. The paper presents future changes in temperature, precipitation and humidity in Yemen, Oman, UAE and Qatar under different scenarios using IPCC database derived through GCM´s. Various climatic change scenarios developed by IPCC were reviewed, A2 and B2 climatic scenarios were selected for the study. Long-term simulated records derived by the following models were retrieved from the database: 1. Hadley Model -(HADCM3) 2. Canadian Climatic Model - (CGCM2) 3. National Center for Atmospheric Research Model - (NCAR-PCM) Using 1970-2000 values as baseline, variations in 2020-2050 and 2070-2099 were estimated and statistically analyzed to determine uncertainties in prediction. Summarized impacts of climate change on human health based on empirical approach for the region is presented in the paper to make it better prepared (adapted) to the climatic changes with recommendations on future capacity building in modeling and data collection.