Extreme value statistics to the prediction of solar flare proton effects on solar cells

Author

Summers, G.P. ; Xapsos, M.A. ; Burke, E.A.

Author_Institution

Naval Res. Lab., Washington, DC, USA

fYear

1996

fDate

13-17 May 1996

Firstpage

289

Lastpage

292

Abstract

A new model for predicting the fluence of solar proton events, based on extreme value theory, is compared to previous models and used to predict silicon solar cell damage as a function of mission duration for satellites in geosynchronous orbits. The model shows consistency with the JPL 1991 model for periods of time equal to 7 years or less. This is the time span of interest to designers of Earth orbiting satellites. However, for longer missions the forecasts of the new model differ from that of JPL 1991. The new model forecasts a higher probability that very large events will occur during long duration interplanetary missions

Keywords

elemental semiconductors; photovoltaic power systems; probability; proton effects; silicon; solar cells; solar flares; space vehicle power plants; statistical analysis; Earth orbiting satellites; JPL 1991 model; Si; Si solar cells; extreme value theory; geosynchronous orbits; long duration interplanetary missions; mission duration; satellites; silicon solar cell damage prediction; solar flare proton effects prediction; Frequency; Laboratories; Orbits; Photovoltaic cells; Predictive models; Proton effects; Satellites; Silicon; Statistical distributions; Statistics;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, 1996., Conference Record of the Twenty Fifth IEEE

Conference_Location

Washington, DC

ISSN

0160-8371

Print_ISBN

0-7803-3166-4

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/PVSC.1996.564002

Filename

564002