Multi-objective decision and risk assessment techniques for reservoir operation

Reservoir operation involves multi-objective, multi-constraint and a number of uncertainties, and based on the basic meaning of risk analysis this paper forms a preliminary mode for multi-objective risk decision of reservoir operation by mainly researching on decision-making of multi-objective operation, risk evaluation index system, index weights and calculation methods and model of operation risk. By the application in the multipurpose dispatching of the Three Gorges Reservoir, it is shown that the model not only gives non-inferior scheme set and their risk value of multi-objective operation, but also can select the best operation with minimal risk quickly and easily. It provides technical support for multi-objective risk decision of reservoir operation and improvement of risk analysis theory and methods of reservoir operation.