Harmonic space-time threat propagation for graph detection

This paper addresses threat propagation on space-time graphs, defined to be a time-sampled graph. The application considered is geographical sites connected by tracks, though such graphs arise in many fields. Several new concepts and efficient algorithms are introduced, specifically, the space-time adjacency matrix and harmonic threat propagation. The cued threat propagation problem is shown to be equivalent to the harmonic solution to Laplace´s equation on the graph. Alternately, the Perron-Frobenius theorem is applied to a modified space-time adjacency matrix to derive a concept of eigen-threat on space-time graphs. Both approaches yield fast, scalable algorithms for space-time threat propagation applicable to both very small and very large graphs. Algorithms are motivated by a continuous time stochastic process model. Detection performance is shown using a simulated insurgent network data for which harmonic space-time threat propagation achieves an 84% probability of detection with a 4% false alarm probability over the entire graph.