• DocumentCode
    3175444
  • Title

    The Application of Time Series Seasonal Multiplicative Model and GARCH Error Amending Model on Forecasting the Monthly Peak Load

  • Author

    Dongxiao, Niu ; Yunyun, Zhang ; Jinpeng, Liu

  • Author_Institution
    Sch. of Econ. Manage., North China Electr. Power Univ., Beijing, China
  • Volume
    3
  • fYear
    2009
  • fDate
    25-27 Dec. 2009
  • Firstpage
    135
  • Lastpage
    138
  • Abstract
    This paper describes the basic principle of seasonal multiplicative model in time series and the GARCH model, applies the former to forecast the monthly peak load, and then uses the latter to amend the forecasting error. Calculating the real data of a regional power grid, results show the forecasting precision and effect of the error modifying model.
  • Keywords
    autoregressive processes; error analysis; load forecasting; time series; GARCH error amending model; monthly peak load forecasting; time series seasonal multiplicative model; Application software; Computer applications; Computer errors; Economic forecasting; Energy management; Load forecasting; Performance analysis; Power grids; Predictive models; Time series analysis; GARCH model; error amending; monthly peak load forecasting; multiplicative model in time series;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • Conference_Titel
    Computer Science-Technology and Applications, 2009. IFCSTA '09. International Forum on
  • Conference_Location
    Chongqing
  • Print_ISBN
    978-0-7695-3930-0
  • Electronic_ISBN
    978-1-4244-5423-5
  • Type

    conf

  • DOI
    10.1109/IFCSTA.2009.272
  • Filename
    5384767