DocumentCode
3175444
Title
The Application of Time Series Seasonal Multiplicative Model and GARCH Error Amending Model on Forecasting the Monthly Peak Load
Author
Dongxiao, Niu ; Yunyun, Zhang ; Jinpeng, Liu
Author_Institution
Sch. of Econ. Manage., North China Electr. Power Univ., Beijing, China
Volume
3
fYear
2009
fDate
25-27 Dec. 2009
Firstpage
135
Lastpage
138
Abstract
This paper describes the basic principle of seasonal multiplicative model in time series and the GARCH model, applies the former to forecast the monthly peak load, and then uses the latter to amend the forecasting error. Calculating the real data of a regional power grid, results show the forecasting precision and effect of the error modifying model.
Keywords
autoregressive processes; error analysis; load forecasting; time series; GARCH error amending model; monthly peak load forecasting; time series seasonal multiplicative model; Application software; Computer applications; Computer errors; Economic forecasting; Energy management; Load forecasting; Performance analysis; Power grids; Predictive models; Time series analysis; GARCH model; error amending; monthly peak load forecasting; multiplicative model in time series;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Computer Science-Technology and Applications, 2009. IFCSTA '09. International Forum on
Conference_Location
Chongqing
Print_ISBN
978-0-7695-3930-0
Electronic_ISBN
978-1-4244-5423-5
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/IFCSTA.2009.272
Filename
5384767
Link To Document