A price forecast method of commercial aircraft based on I-GM(0,N) model

Author

He, Shawei ; Fang, ZhiGeng ; Liu, Sifeng ; Chen, Ye

Author_Institution

Coll. of Econ. & Manage., Nanjing Univ. of Aeronaut. & Astronaut., Nanjing, China

fYear

2010

fDate

10-13 Oct. 2010

Firstpage

3586

Lastpage

3593

Abstract

This paper presents a commercial aircraft price forecast method based on the construction of I-GM(0,N) model. As a modification of conventional GM(0,N), the I-GM(0,N) model is established mainly for Cross sectional data simulation and forecast. After selecting price-affecting factors as well as selecting the Benchmark Ranking Sequence based on Grey Relational Analysis(GRA), the listing prices of some current commercial aircrafts are simulated by I-GM(0,N) model. Then, the price of B767-400ER has been forecasted using I-GM(0,N) with accuracy analysis on forecast result. Proved to have ideal error in simulation and forecast as well as less sensitivity to position of interior forecast point in the sequence, I-GM(0,N) is very effective in the price forecast of newly-designed commercial aircraft with better accuracy in the conceptual design phase.

Keywords

aircraft manufacture; economic forecasting; grey systems; pricing; B767-400ER; GRA; I-GM(0,N) model; accuracy analysis; benchmark ranking sequence; commercial aircraft price forecast method; conceptual design phase; conventional GM(0,N); cross sectional data simulation; grey relational analysis; interior forecast point; price-affecting factors; Benchmark testing; I-GM(0,N) model; commercial aircraft; design phase; price forecast;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Systems Man and Cybernetics (SMC), 2010 IEEE International Conference on

Conference_Location

Istanbul

ISSN

1062-922X

Print_ISBN

978-1-4244-6586-6

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ICSMC.2010.5641810

Filename

5641810