The Poisson versus the straight line method for modeling certain logistics events

The Poisson equation and the straight-line computation method offer two approaches for quantifying spares requirements in the life cycle cost (LCC) logistics support analysis (LSA) world. The Poisson/straight-line computation comparison shows that the Poisson method is the more elegant and precise tool for predicting relevant event outcomes in logistics-related cost modeling applications. It provides for direct confidence level selections and accounts for the nonlinearity of the appropriate probability densities across a useful range of expected failure events. If constant multiplying factors are required to account for mitigating field environment conditions in the cost modeling world, these might be more prudently applied to values obtained from a Poisson computation