Noninvasive prediction of catheter ablation acute outcome in persistent atrial fibrillation based on logistic regression of ECG fibrillatory wave amplitude and spatio-temporal variability

Catheter ablation (CA) is increasingly employed to treat persistent atrial fibrillation (AF), yet assessment of procedural AF termination is still a subject of debate in the medical community. This has motivated the development of different criteria based on the standard electrocardiogram (ECG) to characterize ablation immediate effectiveness. However, most of conventional descriptors are merely computed in one ECG lead, thus neglecting significant information provided by the other leads. The present study proposes a novel predictor of CA outcome by exploiting a subset of the 12 leads in the standard ECG. Our method predicts the need for electrical cardioversion subsequent to CA by suitably combining two sets of multilead features, namely, a measure of fibrillatory wave amplitude and an index of AF spatio-temporal variability per lead. These features are obtained on a reduced-rank approximation determined by principal component analysis emphasizing the highest-variance components in the multilead atrial activity signal, and are then combined by logistic regression. On a database of over 50 persistent AF patients, our method provides reliable predictive measures and proves more robust and informative than classical AF descriptors.