Prediction of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation using physiological time series patterns

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is responsible for significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. Recent clinical research has indicated a strong association between physiological homeostasis and the onset of COPD exacerbation. Thus the analysis of these variables may yield a means of predicting a COPD exacerbation in the near future. However, the accuracy of existing prediction methods based on statistical analysis of periodic snapshots of physiological variables is still far from satisfactory, due to lack of integration of long-term and interactive effects of the physiological variables. Therefore, developing a relatively accurate method for predicting COPD exacerbation is an outstanding challenge. In this paper, a regression-based machine learning technique was developed, using trend pattern variables extracted from COPD patients´ longitudinal physiological records, to classify subjects into “low-risk” and “high-risk” categories, indicating their risk of suffering a COPD exacerbation event. Experimental results from cross validation assessment of the classifier model show an average accuracy of 79.27% using this method.