Title :
Arrangement of recallable and nonrecallable transmission service reservations
Author :
Chang, Y.C. ; Tsai, C.Y. ; Su, C.L. ; Lu, C.N.
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Electr. Eng., Nat. Sun Yat-Sen Univ., Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Abstract :
As the introduction of competition in the power industry, new products have been created while the number of risks to which a market player is exposed to have increased dramatically. In an open access environment, the power transfer capability is a random variable, but current available transfer capability (ATC) postings are deterministic. Managing transmission risks requires a statistical forecast for the expected range of transfer capability. In order to reflect the market activities and operational risks, a bootstrap technique is proposed to accommodate the uncertainty factor consideration in the transfer capability calculation. The proposed method assesses, for incremental levels of transfers, the probability of transaction curtailment. Based on this information a simple method for determining the optimal split of recallable and nonrecallable capacity in each transmission reservation is presented
Keywords :
electricity supply industry; power transmission; probability; risk management; bootstrap technique; nonrecallable capacity; open access environment; power transfer capability; recallable capacity; statistical forecast; transaction curtailment probability; transmission risks management; transmission service reservations; uncertainty factor; Artificial intelligence; Economic forecasting; Power generation economics; Power industry; Power system planning; Power system reliability; Probability; Random variables; Risk management; Uncertainty;
Conference_Titel :
Power Industry Computer Applications, 2001. PICA 2001. Innovative Computing for Power - Electric Energy Meets the Market. 22nd IEEE Power Engineering Society International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Sydney, NSW
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-6681-6
DOI :
10.1109/PICA.2001.932345
