A Peer Model For Urban External Passenger Traffic Modal Forecast

Forecasting of mode split plays an important role in travel demand forecasting, especially for the external passenger transport in urban transportation planning. This paper first analyzes a number of factors that may have great influences on how passengers would choose a mode. The main factors considered are: personal preferences, personal characteristics, and the features of different transport modes. Then, the effectiveness of passenger transport is described in a formula by considering the key influencing factors such as travel time and trip cost. Last, a forecasting model is developed on the basis of the optimal peer methodology. This model is a type of convex mathematical planning model that could directly reflect the mode choosing characteristics in passenger transport. Detailed procedures with regard to how to solve the problem are also provided. This paper is finished by an illustrative example.