An Analysis on Road Network Capacity Reliability Based on OD Pair Travel Time Reliability

In this paper, a bi-level programming model based on OD pair travel time reliability is developed to study road network capacity reliability. A user equilibrium traffic assignment model is proposed with a lower problem describing travelers´ route choice behavior and an upper problem that maximizes the basic reference OD demand multiplier subject to the corresponding prescribed travel time threshold. An approximation algorithm is introduced to estimate the road network capacity reliability. The algorithm treats the capacity of each link as a discrete random variable and uses the road network most probable states generation method in conjunction with the sensitivity analysis technique to solve the bi-level programming model. Finally, a numerical example of a small road network is used to demonstrate the application of the proposed model and algorithm.