Title :
Improvement of electric load forecasting reusing past instances and contextual based adaptation
Author :
Vilcahuaman, R. ; Melendez, J.
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Electr. Eng., Univ. Nacional del Centro del Peru, Huancayo, Peru
Abstract :
Case based reasoning methodology has been used for improving electric load forecasting. Classical extrapolation computed by curve fitting algorithms is adjusted according to short term variations previously registered. Retrieved registers are adapted according to socioeconomic knowledge available related to the prevision point. This strategy has been integrated in a software framework, named FUTURA, in order to operate with real data bases for electric load forecasting in Peru. Improving results are contrasted with other strategies.
Keywords :
case-based reasoning; curve fitting; expert systems; load forecasting; power engineering computing; socio-economic effects; FUTURA; Peru; case based reasoning; contextual based adaptation; curve fitting algorithm; electric load forecasting; expert systems; socioeconomic knowledge; software framework; Curve fitting; Demand forecasting; Economic indicators; Expert systems; Extrapolation; Load forecasting; Load modeling; Parametric statistics; Registers; Timing;
Conference_Titel :
Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exposition: Latin America, 2004 IEEE/PES
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-8775-9
DOI :
10.1109/TDC.2004.1432390
