Title :
Combined forecasting model of urban water demand under changing environment
Author :
Xu Yin-shan ; Mei Ya-dong ; Yong Ting
Author_Institution :
State Key Lab. of Water Resources & Hydropower Eng. Sci., Wuhan Univ., Wuhan, China
Abstract :
The influence of climate change on water consumption under changing economic background has always been kept a important issue by global research institute. Taking Dongguan city as a study object, the influence factors of water requirement are divided into climate factor economic factor and social factor. Water demand forecasting models are established on different influence factors to analyze the response relationship between various influence factors and water demand. Optimum influence factors are chosen on this basis, and water demand forecasting models are established through applying various methods. Least squares(LS) combination forecasting technology is adopted to integrate the results of different forecasting models. The situation and reasons of water demand changes of Dongguan city are proclaimed, the variation tendency of water demand is revealed, and a theoretical foundation for Dongguan City water resources management is provided.
Keywords :
environmental management; forecasting theory; least squares approximations; water resources; Dongguan city; climate change; climate factor; economic background; economic factor; forecasting model; least squares combination forecasting technology; social factor; urban water demand; water consumption; water resources management; Accuracy; Biological system modeling; Cities and towns; Forecasting; Predictive models; Support vector machines; Water resources; artificial neural network; least squares combination forecasting technology; support vector machines; urban water demand;
Conference_Titel :
Electric Technology and Civil Engineering (ICETCE), 2011 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Lushan
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4577-0289-1
DOI :
10.1109/ICETCE.2011.5775448
