Research and fulfillment on prediction algorithm of aircraft maintenance cost based on MSG_3 theory

In this paper, with the aim of reducing disadvantage of aircraft regular overhauling mode, maintenance cost composed in a new way is proposed by systemic analysis of aircraft maintenance planning document (MPD) applying the MSG_3 (Maintenance Steering Group-3) theory. Similar to grey theory, maintenance cost is also divided into material cost and the rest cost besides labour cost is drawn from MPD firstly. The framework and prediction algorithm for annual labour cost is studied and the expense expressions for annual material cost are deduced based on the grey correlation theory. Finally, the prediction system is developed and algorithm is validated for authenticity and reliability by taking the Airbus A320 aircraft as an example.