Non-sequential simulation methods for reliability analysis of power systems with photovoltaic generation

This paper investigates non-sequential simulation methods for single-area electric power system reliability evaluation with time dependent sources such as photovoltaic (PV) generation. Three random sampling techniques are proposed, considering the system load and PV generation as correlated random variables. Reliability indices such as expected loss of load and loss of load probability are estimated from the simulation. The comparisons are made between direct application of sequential sampling and the proposed random sampling methods. Results show that the indices from the proposed simulation methods are as accurate as those from sequential simulation while requiring much less CPU time. The test system is taken from Singapore Energy Market Authority (EMA) data in 2008.