A mission reliability method (MRM) for risk management in the development of materiel system

There are two primary challenges in risk management in development of materiel: (1) The definition of the effect is dominant, which excessively relies on the engineering experience and lacks quantificational assessing methods; (2) There is no efficient way to distinguish cost, schedule and technical risk strictly, it is extremely difficult to evaluate their interrelated effects. This paper presents a new method named mission reliability method (MRM) to provide an innovative way to manage the risk in development materiel risk management. By employing both mission reliability block diagram (MRBD) and probabilistic technique, MRM can define the effect of risk events strictly. This is a mathematical way to identify, evaluate and control risk, and the analyzing results are a series of quantified risk indexes instead of a single one. The MRBD and amendatory mission reliability block diagram (AMRBD) are proposed to identify the reliability of the set of activity in development, to distinguish cost, schedule and technical risk clearly, of which each functional unit can be break down into appointed indenture level. The two above mentioned problems are effectively solved by MRM.