Uncertainty research on economic reliability of equipment based on Extended Monte Carlo Simulation

Life cycle cost is an important index to measure the economics of an equipment system, however, many existing uncertainties pose great challenges to researchers in this field. In this paper, the relationship between cost and reliability under uncertain circumstances was analyzed, and a tradeoff model considering the uncertainties between the reliability and the cost was presented, in which the uncertainty problems were solved by using the Extended Monte Carlo Simulation(EMCS) method. The EMCS method is an extension of the traditional Monte Carlo Simulation where its simulating process is extended to cover the stage of building models such that not only the inputs are iteratively generated but also the model is iteratively rebuilt. This model can better analyze the economic cost interval of complex equipment with given reliability ranges, and finally a case study on a weapon system was given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.