The study of multi-objective decision method based on Bayesian network

Based on the study of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and Bayesian network, this paper establishes the multiple objective decision Bayesian network model (MODBN) by use of the method of converting the indexes and their relationships into the nodes and directed edges in Bayesian network. First of all, calculate the prior probabilities of the leaf nodes in MODBN using the fuzzy relation matrix of grade field of index system in fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Second, calculate the conditional probabilities of the MODBN nodes by the index weights of AHP. Third, MODBN can not only optimally select one scheme and determine its state, but also find out the key factors based on the comprehensive importance analysis and propose the optimization measures for the scheme. At last, the effectiveness and practicality of the model are verified by the comparison of the example of application for research projects and the analytic hierarchy process.