• DocumentCode
    3252648
  • Title

    Applications of optimization combination model for medium-long term load forecasting

  • Author

    Xin-hui, Du ; Peng-fei, Shi ; Wei-wei, Lian ; Juan, Wu

  • Author_Institution
    Coll. of Electr. & Power Eng., Taiyuan Univ. of Technol., Taiyuan, China
  • fYear
    2010
  • fDate
    14-17 June 2010
  • Firstpage
    385
  • Lastpage
    389
  • Abstract
    On the basis of grey theory model for medium-long term load forecasting, the paper improves the traditional grey model and brings forth the grey residual forecasting model for less prediction errors. At the same time, it uses fixed weight method of forecasting model--that is to choose weight with average precision of each model to build a optimization combination forecasting model. It forecasts with the historical load data of some area, and proofs that combination forecasting method is superior to single forecasting model, Its forecasting error is less than 1%. Finally it forecasts future five year loads of some area, and provides a tech support and theoretical foundation for area Power Company.
  • Keywords
    forecasting theory; grey systems; load forecasting; optimisation; grey residual forecasting model; medium-long term load forecasting; optimization combination model; power company; Differential equations; Educational institutions; History; Load forecasting; Optimization methods; Paper technology; Power engineering; Power system modeling; Power system reliability; Predictive models; Load forecasting; grey model; grey residual model; optimization combination forecasting;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • Conference_Titel
    Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), 2010 IEEE 11th International Conference on
  • Conference_Location
    Singapore
  • Print_ISBN
    978-1-4244-5720-5
  • Type

    conf

  • DOI
    10.1109/PMAPS.2010.5528953
  • Filename
    5528953