DocumentCode :
3252648
Title :
Applications of optimization combination model for medium-long term load forecasting
Author :
Xin-hui, Du ; Peng-fei, Shi ; Wei-wei, Lian ; Juan, Wu
Author_Institution :
Coll. of Electr. & Power Eng., Taiyuan Univ. of Technol., Taiyuan, China
fYear :
2010
fDate :
14-17 June 2010
Firstpage :
385
Lastpage :
389
Abstract :
On the basis of grey theory model for medium-long term load forecasting, the paper improves the traditional grey model and brings forth the grey residual forecasting model for less prediction errors. At the same time, it uses fixed weight method of forecasting model--that is to choose weight with average precision of each model to build a optimization combination forecasting model. It forecasts with the historical load data of some area, and proofs that combination forecasting method is superior to single forecasting model, Its forecasting error is less than 1%. Finally it forecasts future five year loads of some area, and provides a tech support and theoretical foundation for area Power Company.
Keywords :
forecasting theory; grey systems; load forecasting; optimisation; grey residual forecasting model; medium-long term load forecasting; optimization combination model; power company; Differential equations; Educational institutions; History; Load forecasting; Optimization methods; Paper technology; Power engineering; Power system modeling; Power system reliability; Predictive models; Load forecasting; grey model; grey residual model; optimization combination forecasting;
fLanguage :
English
Publisher :
ieee
Conference_Titel :
Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), 2010 IEEE 11th International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Singapore
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-5720-5
Type :
conf
DOI :
10.1109/PMAPS.2010.5528953
Filename :
5528953
Link To Document :
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