Sensitivity analysis on urban rail transit passenger flow forecast

In order to scientifically and accurately forecast urban rail transit passenger flow and reduce it´s risk, it is necessary to analyze the sensitivity factors of urban rail transit passenger flow, based on which a sensitivity analysis can be done. Based on the generation mechanism for the passenger flow of urban rail transit, this paper analyzed the sensibility factors that have an impact on the passenger flow, and put forward the corresponding caveats that need particular attention when dealing with such forecast. After analyzed why passenger flow forecasting has a lower accuracy, for reducing passenger flow risk, this paper brought forward the necessity, technique route and emphases of sensitivity analysis. The results show the system risk will be reduced because user can take value rationally according to the usage from the passenger flow fluctuation which be given through sensitivity analysis.