Hybrid wind-Diesel stand-alone system sizing accounting for fuel price uncertainty

Hybrid wind-Diesel stand alone system sizing accounting for fuel price uncertainty is considered. The starting point is constituted by a previously developed deterministic model able to minimize longterm total costs of the system, accounting also for parameters affecting expected lives of relevant components. Due to the sensitiveness of the solution of the problem to the uncertainty of fuel price time trend, probabilistic techno-economical analyses are developed. Starting from a probabilistic characterization of possible fuel price scenarios, the expected values of economical figures such as Pay Back Period and Regret are introduced by means of suitable models. Such figures allow to characterize each solution in a more comprehensive way in order to take final choices. A case-study system is analysed obtaining interesting numerical results.