Reliability assessment of urban anti-disasters system based on fuzzy fault tree analysis

Author

Sui, Yongqin ; Pan, Xiaodong

Author_Institution

Sch. of Transp. Eng., Tongji Univ., Shanghai, China

fYear

2011

fDate

8-10 Aug. 2011

Firstpage

159

Lastpage

162

Abstract

Various uncontrollable and unforeseen emergencies and disasters are often occurred in modern cities, how to evaluate and analyze the reliability of urban anti-disaster system (UADS) becomes very important. Main influence factors of UADS are analyzed, the fault tree models was established. Then this paper addresses a fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) that integrates fuzzy set evaluation, expert judgment and probablistic estimation. Nine minimal cut sets (MCs) are obtained by qualitative analysis, fuzzy probability of occurrence of the top event (TE) is obtained by quantitative analysis, the importance of all basic events are also presented, and that can offer reference to reliability analysis about large UADS.

Keywords

disasters; fault trees; fuzzy set theory; probability; reliability; town and country planning; FFTA; UADS; fuzzy fault tree analysis; fuzzy probability; fuzzy set evalution; reliability analysis; reliability assessment; urban antidisasters system; Educational institutions; Fault trees; Logic gates; Probability; Reliability engineering; Transportation; comprehensive assessment; disasters and emergencies; fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA); influence factors; urban anti-disasters system (UADS);

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Emergency Management and Management Sciences (ICEMMS), 2011 2nd IEEE International Conference on

Conference_Location

Beijing

Print_ISBN

978-1-4244-9665-5

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ICEMMS.2011.6015644

Filename

6015644