The possibility go methodology—analysis of transportation network reliability for emergency logistics under earthquake disasters

The transportation reliability is a key issue for emergency logistics. Earthquake disasters and secondary disasters with uncertainty may possibly destroy or damage the transportation network. So, forecasting and evaluating the reliability of the transportation network are significant for path selection in emergency logistics management under earthquake disasters. In the study, with possibility theory and GO methodology, the operators are defined, and event success or failure behavior is characterized in the context of possibility measures. Then, the possibility GO methodology, which may forecast the transportation network reliability for emergency logistics under earthquake disasters, is presented considering more actual factors in time of disaster. Finally, a simulation example demonstrates that the proposed method is effective and applicable.