• DocumentCode
    3261369
  • Title

    Modelling volatility with mixture density networks

  • Author

    Mostafa, Fahed ; Dillon, Tharam

  • Author_Institution
    DEBII, Curtin Univ., Bentley, WA
  • fYear
    2008
  • fDate
    26-28 Aug. 2008
  • Firstpage
    501
  • Lastpage
    505
  • Abstract
    Volatility is an important variable in financial forecasting. Forecasting volatility requires a development of a suitable model for it. In this paper, we examine different time series models for volatility modelling. Specifically, we will study the use of recurrent mixture density networks, GARCH and EGARCH models to model volatility. In addition, we demonstrate the impact of different factors on the accuracy and completeness of each of these models.
  • Keywords
    financial management; recurrent neural nets; time series; exponential GARCH model; financial forecasting; recurrent mixture density network; time series; volatility modelling; Economic forecasting; Equations; Gaussian processes; Instruments; Neural networks; Portfolios; Predictive models; Pricing; Risk management; Testing;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • Conference_Titel
    Granular Computing, 2008. GrC 2008. IEEE International Conference on
  • Conference_Location
    Hangzhou
  • Print_ISBN
    978-1-4244-2512-9
  • Electronic_ISBN
    978-1-4244-2513-6
  • Type

    conf

  • DOI
    10.1109/GRC.2008.4664673
  • Filename
    4664673