Dynamic mortality simulation model incorporating risk indicators for cardiovascular diseases

This article describes a dynamic-fuzzy simulation model and proposes an extension to it. The model represents a person´s physiological capacity throughout life and simulates the occurrence of risk events from birth until death, including a representation of the process of recovering health after it has been impacted by a risk event. The expanded model incorporates cardiovascular risk factors in order to reproduce curves plotted from real mortality data from a specific population whose cause of death was cardiovascular diseases. By adjusting the parameters, it proved possible to reproduce mortality curves from populations with specific characteristics such as hypertension, obesity and physical activity levels. A simulation model that is capable of focusing on specific populations makes it possible to test alternative intervention designed to reduce the mortality caused by specific diseases, thereby contributing to improved quality-of-life for populations and to cost savings for both public and private health care systems.