Title :
Sale forecasting method in dynamic environment based on ARMA(1,1)
Author :
Hong, Du ; Bo, Cui
Author_Institution :
Commerce Sch., Tianjin Univ. of Commerce, Tianjin, China
Abstract :
Sale forecasting is a difficult thing because of the dynamic sale environment and inefficient sale structure. Considering the short of circle and irregular factor in multiplication model, this paper uses the ARMA (1,1) model to forecast the circle and irregular factor separated from multiplication model. The method is proved effective according to result of the contrast analysis on sale data of 27 month of some product. The use of the method can improve the forecasting accuracy and has great significance for making plan of manufacturing and purchase.
Keywords :
autoregressive moving average processes; forecasting theory; sales management; ARMA (1,1) model; circle factor; dynamic sale environment; irregular factor; multiplication model; sale forecasting method; Analytical models; Autoregressive processes; Business; Educational institutions; Forecasting; Marketing and sales; Predictive models; ARMA model; multiplication model; sale forecasting;
Conference_Titel :
Electric Information and Control Engineering (ICEICE), 2011 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Wuhan
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-8036-4
DOI :
10.1109/ICEICE.2011.5777454
