Title :
Analysis on the Dynamic Causality Relationships among FDI, Foreign Trade and Exchange Rate Volatility
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Financial Manage., Shanghai Inst. of Foreign Trade, Shanghai, China
Abstract :
China reform the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, which result in Chinese enterprises facing exchange rate risk. Chinese rapid economic growth is accompanied by rapid growth in exports and foreign direct investment(FDI). This paper attempts to exam the relation between FDI and trade export and exchange rate volatility in China by vector autoregressive model and Granger causal test. The empirical analysis reveals that a causal complementary relationship exists among the three variables. Also, an depreciation of the RMB/USD currency (effect exchange rate rising) led to improvement in export trade, which is satisfied with the Marshall-Lerner condition. FDI improves trade balance, but the impact of FDI on trade exports is insignificant. The appreciation of RMB will not deteriorate the trade account. Some policy suggestions on promoting the growth of China´s foreign trade through foreign investment and exchange rate reform, such as: improving the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, strengthening research and development efforts of the independent intellectual property rights, increasing the quality of foreign investment and value-added products.
Keywords :
autoregressive processes; foreign exchange trading; international trade; statistical testing; vectors; China; FDI; Granger causal test; Marshall-Lerner condition; RMB exchange rate formation mechanism; USD currency; dynamic causality relationship; economic growth; empirical analysis; exchange rate risk; exchange rate volatility; foreign direct investment; foreign trade; intellectual property rights; value-added product; vector autoregressive model; Estimation; Exchange rates; Fluctuations; Intellectual property; Investments; Research and development; FDI; Granger causal test; exchange rate management; trade export;
Conference_Titel :
Intelligent System Design and Engineering Applications (ISDEA), 2013 Third International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Hong Kong
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4673-4893-5
DOI :
10.1109/ISDEA.2012.88