Forecasting and numbering

The number of interconnects has grown phenomenally over the last 10 years, but was anyone able to foresee the changes in the industry and accurately forecast the growth? Likewise standing at this point looking into the future, who can predict the changes that will impact on the industry; the levels of competition, the numbering changes, the interconnect requirements. Yet this is what we try to do, by making medium to long term plans for our network growth and CAPEX budgets. Every business relies on forecasts to ensure that customer demand and potential can be met, but within the UK telecoms market there are some additional factors to consider. The telecoms industry in the UK is growing rapidly, in the number of players, the level of traffic, and the complexity of routing. Between 1987 and 1992 alone, the UK market grew by an extraordinary 73%, how many other industries have experienced such growth in such a short period? Every telecommunications operator´s forecasting group will probably have a wide range of views as to how to approach these problems. However, due to the timeframes that are being predicted, as the forecaster moves further into the future, more and more unknowns come into play, which effectively make the long term forecast little more than an educated guess. This paper does not contain all the answers, but merely aims to inform the reader of the principles of both forecasting and numbering taking into account the many problems that are faced today