The new millennium: a turning point?

Through news items and reports, the general public have been made aware of the problems surrounding the Year 2000 (Y2K) and Euro Conversion. Such reports are also making it clear just how much computer based systems now impinge on peoples lives throughout the world. The issues involved in both Y2K and Euro Conversion are not conceptually difficult, yet the resources they will consume are enormous. That this level of expenditure should have to occur is itself a terrible indictment of the state of the industry. It is currently far from clear whether the industry will muddle through again, just in time, or whether the predictions of the “doom mongers” will come true and we will see a series of major disasters at the start of the new millennium. To put things in perspective we need to stand back and appraise the overall situation with regard to development of software systems. The author bases his remarks on information relating to the UK, but he is convinced that the situation is little better elsewhere. With regard to systems, the problems that we have to address are: the criticality of systems; the complexity of scale; increasing change; and issues associated with legacy and evolution compared with green field site situations