Climate change effect on very short-term electric load forecasting

Climate changes are related to air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation level, among others. These variables have a large effect on very short-term electricity demand (minutes or hour ahead). In this context, this paper presents a methodology for very short-term load forecasting considering the climatic change impact. Therefore, air temperature and relative humidity are related through the Discomfort Index, and the first with the wind speed are linked through the Wind Chill. These climate indexes are used in this paper for electric load forecasting together with a multiple regression model. The proposed projection methodology was tested computationally and compared with real date obtained from a distribution utility located in southern Brazil. The results demonstrate the strong dependence of the evolution of electricity demand with climatic change in the very short-term.