Prediction of demand for landfill volume: analysis by dynamic extension of waste input-output model

Prediction of lifecycle performances of demolished durables is necessary to manage limited landfill volume. Since there are various uncertainties about the lifetime of durables, the environmental effects from demolished durables are to be evaluated by considering probability distributions. In this research, to consider the uncertainty of waste generation from discarded durables depending on not only physical factors but economical factors, we try to estimate the failure distribution function of the buildings in consideration of the economic factor. By using estimated failure distribution function of the buildings, we evaluate two scenarios. The first scenario is concerned about effects of recovery of waste material. In second scenario, extension of usage life of building is considered.