Innovation diffusion of successive generations of high technology products

As most of the high-technology companies are trying to be more demand driven, technological innovation and diffusion have become important force in markets today. It critically affects the fortunes of consumers, firms, and nations. Despite research across many disciplines, many important areas still remain to be explored fully. Consumer adoption decision for multi-generation innovation is one such important research area in this field. High technology product comes in generations where a new innovation offers a significant improvement in performance or benefits over the previous generation. And, often two successive generations under the same product category compete in the market. Yet technology substitution has received little attention in the diffusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of first purchase adoption which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing technology. Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the diffusion of technology substitution. In this work, we propose multigenerational diffusion model to study the marketing dynamics of Indian Television Market (both Black & White and Color Television). The model consider repeat-adoption-substitution diffusion framework. Comparisons with different existing multigenerational models are made. The results of this study could be advanced for forecasting new technologies of television product.